Will Russia invade Ukraine? Here’s what you need to know.

Photo by Max Kukurudziak on Unsplash

I had a conversation with a friend planning on moving to Ukraine (he’s to leave next Monday) and I figured that he doesn’t even know much about the ongoing tussle between the WEST/NATO & Russia and how Ukraine is fast becoming a pawn in settling long term rift between the war giants. Ukraine is a sovereign country west of Russia and East of Europe. It’s the link between Communism and the West.

After the fall of the USSR; countries like Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Tajikistan and all the ‘Stans 😂 broke out of USSR to form independent states/countries. Ukraine became the second-largest country in Europe by landmass after Russia hence it quickly start amassing a major player role.

Russia is the biggest and the seat of USSR had wanted its siblings to retain its big brother role among the States and always saw Ukraine as the stubborn second born who believed he’s grown😃. Now, here’s a thing we need to have at the back of our minds.

Photo by Artur Voznenko on Unsplash

NATO was formed to ensure that countries like USSR or Old China never existed in the future, hence it became important that NATO quickly woo and adopt some of the old USSR states into their exclusive club. That single goal is enough threat to Russia; the powerhouse of Europe Communism and its typical for her to try to defend its home.

Now, what happens when you start feeling your family isn’t supporting you or may betray you… Well, gaslighting them 😂😂, divide them so they cannot unite against you and if possible ensure you make the first move cos in a family duel… you may only be able to throw a single punch before issues are settled. That strategy works for most annexations and “big brother-ism”

Look at China and Hong Kong, France and all Francophone African countries, England and other UK states… Just keep going 😂

Back to our story, besides Ukraine are smaller countries and territories “with popular loyalty” to Russia.

One of these is an Island called the Crimea region. In 2014, this Island suddenly did a referendum and decided that they’ve agreed to be annexed to Russia… lol!

As a govt that needs to protect its territory, the Ukraine govt revolted and this turned into a full-blown war.. tens of thousands were dead, injured or displaced.

Photo by Sam Oxyak on Unsplash

It’s believed in the grapevine that Russia is funding these separatists though Russia denied it 😂 (no one will claim it since they’ve all learnt from Saddam Hussein’s error). As the Ukrainian govt was battling that, another region in East Ukraine (closer to Russia) started agitating for separation… two new countries broke out and it’s been another bloody battle in the Donbask region… Meanwhile, Russia keeps pushing for their troops around the Russian/Donbask region and again grapevine had it that Russia is responsible for the entire funding of this violence

So why is Russia trying to invade Ukraine and why is it important that you think very deeply about relocating to a country like that — just like my friend.

Russia had pressured the former President of Ukraine to sign a bilateral deal and that resulted in a full-blown riot in Ukraine. The President was forced out and the new President signed a multilateral deal with the EU instead of her “big brother” Russia

Russia is scared that once Ukraine is wooed by NATO or Ukraine allows NATO to perform its military exercise within its border, they (Russia) will become penetrable and that may mean the demise of Great Russia.

Russia has filed a petition to ban Ukraine from joining NATO but it’s unclear if the EU or even NATO will pass the opportunity to finally come head-to-head with one of the biggest Communists in the world

Putin has pushed tens of thousands of soldiers, missiles, tankers across all Ukrainian borders and is ready to engage at any time. He’s trying to push everyone into getting a deal at the table…

If Ukraine is successful, Russians may want democracy. Putin may be at risk internally in Russia and that may be the final downfall of one of the last two powerhouses of Communism in the world…

If Russia moves forward with their aggression, Ukraine automatically becomes the battlefield for Communism vs The West — China, Russia versus the West.

To play the devil’s advocate, Russia fails by allowing religion and diverse culture. China is winning & becoming untouchable because it’s indoctrinated its people, pushed its own truth within its people.

Truth isn’t the same as Facts! Truth is largely a narrative believed by the majority of people.

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Afroconomist

Afroconomist

Telling stories of Africa; her economics, history and politics | Bridging economic gaps by scaling traditional ideas & businesses with tech.