How Peter Obi, the third force & the Soro-soke generation can win the 2023 Presidential Elections
I love the enthusiasm about Peter Obi by many young people and older people from some regions in Nigeria. However, it’s important that there’s a solid strategy in place else it’d be another round of efforts without fruition
To win the presidential election in Nigeria, a candidate must receive a majority of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states. This simply means Peter Obi can’t/won’t win the elections if only youths concentrated in cities & southern states vote for him. Even if he wins the simple majority due to the numbers gained in popular cities, he’d still need to achieve a handful of 25% across 24 states.
North Central: 6 + FCT
North East: 6
North West: 7
South East: 5
South West: 6
Do your calculations and see how it’s as important to mobilize people across all of the 36 states in the federation. Mind you, he will be contesting against;
ABAT — South West
Kwankwasiyya — North West
Atiku — North East
Not that he can’t have the chance but there’s a need to do a lot more work in places he’s less popular. LP scored a little over 5000+ votes from 176,000 polling units nationwide in the last election. Aside from Ondo state, the party doesn’t have any existing grassroots structure not even in Lagos. This means that they couldn’t even mobilize 176,000 agents to represent them at each polling unit. PO needs reps in 176,846 full-fledged polling units across 774 local governments in Nigeria.
Getting all the youths in Lagos, Port Harcourt and Abuja isn’t enough. POists need to get foot soldiers that are ready to engage with the rural community and sell the idea of a new politics to them. Locals in the hinterland have a vacuum of trust to be filled every 4 years, whosoever fills that vacuum with hope and temporal care will win their hearts. That’s where the work is… just like Agric extension workers Awolowo used to deepen AG in the first republic, “POists” need to roll their sleeves and put in the work. Offer value and care, even if temporal and get champions/extension workers in all nooks and crannies of Nigeria.
Mind you, if all you’re looking for is a “different, better or changed” Nigeria, there’s a lot more work to be done on who represents you at the National Assembly (House of Reps and Senate)
If Peter Obi wins with LP but the house gets dominated by APC or PDP, he’ll have a full four years of watching his back and witch-hunt. The nation will be stagnated as they’ll do their best to frustrate all his good intentions.
Good intentions don’t cause revolutions or great changes… Active engagement and politics (by whipping legislators to your end of the vote) do. Obasanjo excelled at this and that’s the reason he’s one of our most successful Presidents since 1960. So while you focus on PO, you also need to be sure you focus on changing the environment he’ll work in.
Above all, get your PVC. Be involved in all levels of governance… Your State Executives and Legislators matter as much as the Presidency. The House of Reps and Senators matter as much as the Presidency. There are over 400 seats in the National assembly, that’s another place to cause an upset. PO has been a victim of this himself, he got himself impeached as a governor because he can’t “whip” his house into his side.
Finally, on the PO subject matter, a vote for PO is a vote for a new Nigeria.. an increase in youth political participation.. a protest for change. Even if he won’t win the elections, youths can make a statement further than #ENDSARS… then in the coming elections, become more intentional in building a structure.